The performance of the toy industry depends on the product cycle and relies on movie effects to drive sales

Following the end of a year of decline in the first quarter of this year, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council announced that the export index for the second quarter continued to rise, rising from 1.9 to 46.8 quarter-to-quarter, setting a new one-year high. The major market indexes in Europe, America, Japan and the Mainland have all increased, and the global economic outlook is expected to improve in the second half of the year. Among them, the toy industry experienced the strongest growth, rebounding from 13.1 to 52.5 quarter-to-quarter, making it the only industry above the 50-peak line in the past four quarters. Pan Yongcai, chief economist of the bureau's global market, pointed out that the performance of the toy industry depends on the product cycle and relies on film effects to drive sales, and the outlook is more volatile.　　 Hong Kong’s “Wen Wei Po” reported that Guan Jiaming, the research director of the bureau, said that although the export index improved in the second quarter, it was still below the 50 mark. At the beginning of the year, he predicted that the total export value will increase by 3% this year. He believes that exports will continue to improve in the second half of the year, and he is confident of reaching the target.　　 The toy industry index rebounded sharply this season. Pan Yongcai explained that the main reason is that the sales of electronic toys have increased for a long time. At the same time, movie peripheral products are also popular, which drives the overall performance. However, he pointed out that because the sales of these products depend on the cycle and are relatively passive, the performance of the toy industry will be more volatile, and it is still optimistic in the short term. The electronics industry and the watch industry continued to perform well, rising 1.9 to 47.5 and 5.9 to 45.1 quarterly respectively.　　 Hong Kong’s major export markets, including the European Union, the United States, Japan, and the Mainland, all have an index close to 50. The European Union index has increased significantly, rising from 1.9 to 48.6, reflecting the stronger confidence of Hong Kong businessmen. Regarding the market’s concerns about the breakdown of Greece’s debt negotiations or the impact on the EU’s economy, Pan Yongcai believes that the incident will not affect Hong Kong’s exports. Firstly, there is little chance of Greece leaving the euro zone. Secondly, the related debts will not affect general consumers and banks. There is a significant improvement.　　 It has been a long time since the United States is raising interest rates. Guan Jiaming pointed out that export trade is less sensitive to interest rate hikes and will not increase operating costs. On the contrary, interest rate hikes are good for exporters because they reflect the improvement of the US economy. He reminded that international currency policies are different, and exchange rate fluctuations will have a significant impact on exporters. Regarding the recent political reform controversy in Hong Kong and the haze of the new SARS, Guan Jiaming said that the 'Occupy Central' movement approached the exhibition venue last year, but it had no major impact on its exhibitions. I believe that even if the political reform renews conflicts, it does not hinder the industrial and commercial districts. , Has no impact on exports. As for the outbreak of New SARS in South Korea, he said that Hong Kong businessmen produced electronic parts on behalf of South Korean companies, but he had not heard of production and logistics problems, which temporarily had no impact on Hong Kong's exports.