In the first half of the year, global trade suffered a sharp contraction in 6 years**
Core reminder: Statistics show that in the first half of this year, global trade suffered a sharp contraction since the end of the global **** crisis in 2008. These data will make people worry about the global economy and will intensify the debate about whether globalization is peaking. Data shows that in the first half of this year, global trade suffered a sharp contraction since the end of the 2008 global crisis. These data will make people worry about the global economy and will intensify the debate about whether globalization is peaking. 'World Trade Monitor' stated that in the three months ending in June, global trade volume fell by 0.5%. The global trade data for the first quarter of this year was revised down to a contraction of 1.5%. Therefore, the global trade situation in the first half of this year has been the worst since the sharp decline in global trade due to the **** crisis in 2009. According to the 'World Trade Monitor' report, in June, the global trade volume actually rebounded by 2%, but the author of the report warned that monthly data has greater volatility, and longer-term data is more indicative of the problem. According to the new ** data, in the three months to the end of June, global trade volume only increased by 1.1% compared with the same period last year. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast, the global economy will grow by 3.5% this year. The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade will increase by 3.3% this year, but this estimate may be lowered. The slowdown in global trade this year is largely caused by the weak recovery of the European economy and the slowdown of the Chinese economy. In addition, the global economy is clearly undergoing structural adjustments, which means that the global trade slowdown may continue for some time. China is trying to transform from an export-oriented economy to a more domestic-driven economy, which has a structural impact on global trade. The same is true for changes in the US energy sector. The US is becoming a net exporter of energy. At the same time, in the trend of near shore or even return, manufacturers decided to shorten the global supply chain, locate production bases closer to the country or even move back to the country, which also had a structural impact on global trade. Although globalization may peak, there is currently no sign that the trend of globalization has reversed. Although the growth rate of trade has slowed to a level similar to the growth rate of global GDP, as an integral part of the global economy, trade has remained stable. Calculated at constant prices in 2005, commodity exports still steadily accounted for one-third of global output.